Being as young as I am, I can seriously not imagine baseball without certain things.

I can’t imagine baseball without a fantasy obviously. Since I have been drawn to the sport, fantasy baseball has been as much of a staple as fantasy football to the NFL or fantasy basketball to the NBA.

Middle relief has become such big business nowadays that you have an entire section on roster reports dedicated solely to who’s a middle reliever, a spot starter, and a closer! Back in the day, pitchers would pitch complete games regardless of how high the score got, how hot it was, or regardless of when their next start was (which was usually later on that week). Yet, middle relief has become such a big deal nowadays that it has changed the way the game is played.

With the advent of fantasy baseball and roster spots, there has become a growing trend that is sweeping rosters across the board and it is known by the simple letters of “SP/RP”. This is basically pitchers who qualify as “spot starters” or guys who start out the year as a relief pitcher but then get moved to the rotation whether it’s due to injury, talent, or you just decide to blow up your team one day (see Boston Red Sox GM Ben Cherington).

This has posed a serious question that owners are now having to ask themselves: are starts worth more than save opportunities?

It’s a fair question to ask. If you look at standard scoring alone, the top 2 “RP-eligible pitchers” (Los Angeles Angels’ SP/RP Garrett Richards and San Diego Padres’ SP/RP Tyson Ross) are both getting starts on a weekly basis. Not to mention, they both have 85 and 24 points (respectively) more than the next closest “closer” who is Milwaukee Brewers’ RP Francisco Rodriguez! And we haven’t even mentioned Cincinnati Reds’ SP/RP Alfredo Simon who currently ranks 4th on that list. The disparity in points is not one to overlook.

Luckily there is hope in this.

You can’t deny that the SP/RP role is a good one to cash in on. You can easily get 2-4 extra starts a week if you know who to pick up and how to manage the match ups right. Richards (12-4, 2.58 ERA, 2.10 WHIP, 158 SO, 443 fantasy points) is an obvious choice on who you can gamble on. At his current rate, he stands to make you at least 180-200 more fantasy points over the next 8 weeks. But what if you’re not lucky enough to have a guy like Richards, Ross (382.5 fantasy points), or Simon (344.5 fantasy points), what do you do?

They are the top 3, but the next closest is further down the charts. 14 spots to be exact. Oakland A’s SP/RP Jesse Chavez (8-7, 3.41 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 276.5 fantasy points) is ranked 18th overall and with a loaded rotation, a gamble at best. Closer rule 14 out of 18 spots and in the bigger picture, 22 out of the top 30 are “closer only” RP. You have dedicated middle relievers that include New York Yankees’ RP Dellin Betances (224 points) and Los Angeles Angels’ RP Joe Smith (262 points) but that represents the minority.

Not saying that there isn’t inherit gamble with a closer. St. Louis Cardinals RP Trevor Rosenthal (1-5, 3.07 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 35 S, 327 points) ranks 5ht overall in points but has blown 4 saves this year and an ERA/WHIP that is double that of 8 of the top 10 closers. But despite the high ERA/WHIP, Rosenthal still averages 17.2 points per week (equivalent of 2 save opportunities).

Even a closer on a bad team is still worth points. Minnesota Twins’ RP Glen Perkins (3-0, 2.66 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 28 S, 318.5 points) and Boston Red Sox RP Koji Uehara (5-2, 1.42 ERA, 0.73 WHIP, 22 S, 318.5 points) are dead last in their respective divisions but can still get you points in spite of their team’s shortcomings.

My rule, albeit a new one, is this:

• “Treat save opportunities like you would games started”

Doing this can help you make the right choices. If a closer goes out and pitches the perfect inning (0 hits allowed, 0 runs, 0 walks, 3 SO, 1 S) that is worth 11.5 points (just for one opportunity). You take that and say he gets another save opportunity that week, that’s 23 points. He gives up a run or walk, that bumps you down to 19-20 points. For a SP (in a non-double start week) to get you those kind of points they would need 6 innings of shut out baseball (0 hits, 0 walks, 0 ER) and that would get you 21 points.

Emphasis still has to be placed on ERA and WHIP (as we discussed last week). You can’t throw those rules out of the window. But when you break down the numbers, there are very few SP out there that will net you the kind of points a closer will. In the big picture, 4 out of the top 90 pitchers are SP/RP while 18 out of the top 90 are closers.

Hope this info helps and happy hunting!

Till next time..

Chad Bates

We have all been there. Draft day comes and once the picks are in, the thought comes up “How could I possibly lose?”

Then the injury bug, mediocre performance, and 50-game bans decide to take your perfectly good team and run them through meat grinder. Once the season ends, your team is barely recognizable.

Sound familiar to anyone?

Waiver wires can be a “get-out-of-jail” free card or they can have you wind up behind bars before you can blink. A lot of “The Fantasy Focus” looks at this concept and offers advice on how you can get a “second chance”. But in all of our 5 years, we have never given out advice on how to actually “read them”.

To say there is a science to it would be an insult to the chemists, biologist, and physics professors alike but I would lean more towards “art” if I had to choose a fitting word.

Most people will run into the “flavor of the week” mode like you would with fantasy football. Take the case of Oakland A’s SP Drew Pomeranz (5-4, 2.91 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 48 SO) and his rise and fall over weeks 7-13. Pomeranz netted 21 points in week 7 and saw a 51% increase in his ownership in week 8. He then proceed to role out weeks of 16, 13, 14, 18, and -9 over the next 5 and saw his ownership plummet to what is now 26%. With that came a demotion to AAA Sacramento and up to this point, no promise of being recalled anytime soon.

With the wire comes the complete opposite and no one has been a better case than Cleveland Indians’ OF Michael Brantley (.318 BA, 15 HR, 65 RBI, 11 SB). To start the season, Brantley was only owned in 59% of leagues despite posting a respectable .284 BA with 10 HR, 73 RBI, and 17 SB the previous season. Brantley had a solid posting of 27 points in week 3 and saw his ownership rise to 93% by week 5. Since then, he has been an All-Star and posted at least 20 points or more in 8 weeks since week 4, he has been on a torrid pace and is ranked 3rd in fantasy amongst OF!

So what does all of this prove? Proves that this post is worth reading.

Finding the diamonds amongst the dirt is tough to do. Most people take one or two good performances and immediately roll the dice. It goes back to fantasy football mentality; this is a marathon, not a sprint.

Consistent performance is always a great metric. Brantley had that to start the first 3 weeks of the season which made him a safer gamble. Pitching is where we see the “roller coaster” effect happen the most. It’s tough to have a waiver wire find pay big dividends unless you get an undrafted rookie (like Toronto Blue Jays’ SP Marcus Stroman)  later and are able to catch him when he gets red hot. Stroman (6-2, 3.20 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 59 SO) has been money the last 5 weeks posting at least 20 points in 4 out of the last 5 weeks, including 2 weeks of 31 points or better!

With that being said, there are several rules to keep in mind. Like surviving a horror movie, there are rules.

1. Never target pitchers with Wins and High ERA/WHIP: This will always come back to bite you. Teams, MLB and fantasy (for that matter), are prone to highs and lows during the season. Wins are usually worth 5 points in most leagues but if the ERA and WHIP are high, it can usually cost you or devalue a pitcher when he stops getting run support. Best case of this is Boston Red Sox SP Clay Buchholz (5-7, 5.86 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 70 SO) who has seen his ownership as high as 95% to start the season and as low as 39% in week 12. Where Boston goes, he goes and that’s a scary though since the Red Sox have lost 6 out of their last 7 games.
   

   Buchholz has been getting rocked this season and has seen his ownership rise and fall.

2. Be careful of “power-only hitters”: I should change the name of this to the “Mark Reynolds or Adam Dunn Effect”. Milwaukee Brewers 3B Reynolds (.210 BA, 18 HR, 38 RBI, 99 K) is a classic example of short-term fix. In week 8, he dropped 28 fantasy points and saw ownership rise to 47% in week 10. Since then, he has posted 5 weeks of single-digit points and he is currently on-pace to reach 149 K. When a guy has superhuman power, always check the K’s. Those are minus 1 in most leagues and short-term power can lead to long-term issues if the K’s climb.
3. Give rookies time to develop: St. Louis Cardinals’ OF Oscar Taveras (.208 BA, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 14 SO) was the prize everyone sought in week 9 when he was called up. He posted 9 points in week 10 and saw his ownership rise from 49% to start the season to 92% in week 11! Then he was sent back down to AAA Memphis and things cooled off (dropped to 65% in week 13). Since he was called up in week 14, he has posted weeks of 7, 6, 1, and 5 points and is in danger of being demoted again. We all want to get rookie studs like Chicago White Sox 1B Jose Abreu (.294 BA, 30 HR, 79 RBI) but you can’t go all-in unless you have something to go off of. Getting caught in that trap happens as often as the pitching trap.

With all of that being said, here are a couple of names to keep an eye on.

• Josh Harrison, 2B/3B/OF, Pittsburgh Pirates: He is still available in 33% of leagues out there! What’s wrong with people? He has been consistent (11 out of 12 weeks with at least 10 points) which is surprising since he doesn’t play everyday. He’s not overly blessed with power (7 HR and 34 RBI) but he can fill key areas (40 R and 13 SB) while posting a respectable .298 BA.
  

  Harrison doesn’t get enough fantasy love and not just because he had one of the greatest rundown’s in history against the New York Mets.

• Jake McGee, SP/RP, Tampa Bay Rays: The Rays have won 10 out of their last 11 games and McGee (3-0, 12 S, 1.50 ERA, 0.83 WHIP) has been earning saves left and right. He has 5 in his last 7 games and has yielded only 3 hits in his last 7 appearances! He’s a premium in the RP role right now which is not a guarantee for owners anymore.
• Vance Worley, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates: He is only owned in 28″% of leagues but if you’re looking for a guy who can help you towards the playoffs, he is one to keep an eye on. His 4-1 record is nothing earth-shattering but the fact he has posted at least 20 points in 5 of the last 8 weeks is a good sign. That and his 2.53 ERA and 1.06 WHIP doesn’t hurt either.
• Denard Span, OF, Washington Nationals: He is another example of you don’t need power to be effective. Span has climbed in ownership (15% in July) and with good reason; he’s hitting .369 in the month of July. He has also collected 53 points over the last 3 weeks and ranks in the Top 10 in fantasy OF in runs (64). While he’s hot, ride him.
• Darren Duffy, SP, Kansas City Royals: If you only pay attention to his record (5-10), you will miss out on the bigger picture. He doesn’t get the wins but he can still produce points (6 of his last 8 weeks have produced double digits). And his best quality? A very respectable 2.47 ERA to go with a 1.07 WHIP. If he was on a better team, he would be a “must start”.
  

  Duffy’s ERA and WHIP alone make up for the lack of wins.

Good luck on the wire and as always, may the odds ever be in your favor (unless you’re playing me).

Till next time..

Chad Bates

There is nothing like it. Other than soccer who has a transfer window period in January, no other sport has a trade deadline quite like the MLB.

NFL and NBA have a “trade deadline” but let’s be real, unless we are talking fantasy nothing of major consequence happens.

Odds of Tom Brady or Calvin Johnson getting traded mid-season are about the same odds as me getting a modeling gig. And if you haven’t seen me lately, those odds are getting smaller by the moment.

We have seen some unthinkable “deadline deals” in the past that have altered the course of team’s projections. In 2000, Philadelphia Phillies’ SP Curt Schilling  was dealt to the Arizona Diamondbacks for a list of prospects and Schilling ended up being the miss piece as the Diamondbacks won the World Series the following year.

2003 was another year that altered the course of team’s fate. Had it not been for the infamous “Steve Bartman Catch”, the Chicago Cubs could have seen their gamble pay off even more when they acquired 3B Aramis Ramirez from the Pittsburgh Pirates. Ramirez put up 15 HR and 39 RBI after the trade and was a pivotal piece for the Cubs who almost made it to the World Series.

That one had to be a brutal reminder for Cubs’ fans. I do apologize.

Rumor mills have being spinning faster than we can keep up with them this season. There has been talk of big name pitching making a jump along with several key positional players who could be the boost teams need in order to make a post-season run. With a second Wild Card spot and more parity then we have seen in a long time, the MLB Trade Deadline can be a crucial piece for teams and fantasy owners alike.

So far we have already seen a trade with serious consequences. The Oakland A’s might have shifted the odds in their favor on July 4 as they dealt for SP Jeff Samardzija (4-8, 2.80 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 123 SO) and SP Jason Hammel (8-7, 3.35 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 109 SO) for a top 20 prospect in SS Addison Russell (.269 BA, 4 HR, 17 RBI in the minors in 2014). While fantasy owners will not be on the “Russell Watch” this season, it does make things interesting in “AL Only” or “NL Only” Leagues. Samardzija has gained since joining the A’s, picking up 3 wins (he had 1 in 16 starts previously with the Cubs) and has done it with a respectable 2.80 ERA with 20 SO.

Samardzija had been on the rumor mill for awhile and he is not the only one. Perhaps the most prized-arm in trade deadline history is still up for grabs, for the right “price”.

No pun intended.

Tampa Bay Rays’ SP David Price (10-7, 3.06 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 173 SO) has been dominating the airwaves the last couple of weeks and with good reason; he’s a former Cy Young winner and having an impressive season on a “bad” team. He’s 4-0 in the July and owning a ridiculous 0.85 ERA and 0.85 WHIP. On top of that, he has more SO (29) than H (20).

If there has been a better pitcher as of late, I haven’t heard his name yet.

Price is the prize but it’s not a forgone conclusion he’s available. Rays’ General Manager Andrew Friedman is asking for the sun, moon, and stars in order to get one of the best left-handed pitchers in MLB. He is wanting elite prospects and with teams stock piling prospects like people hoard gold, it’s hard to imagine anyone out there who could pull off a deal.

However, consider this most modest proposal. The Cubs! That’s right, I said the Cubs.

They have the prospects (5 in the Top 50) and they are in dire need of pitching (traded most of their’s away with the A’s). They are 15.5 games out of first place so in terms of making an impact this season, not going to happen. But from a long term standpoint, it gets General Manager Theo Epstein’s “rebuilding project” ahead of schedule and gives the Cubs a legit ace.

Other teams like the Los Angeles Dodgers and St. Louis Cardinals will be in the discussion but in terms of bounty, the Cubs have the best stockpile of any team.

Here are a couple of other names to keep a close eye on.

• Cliff Lee, SP, Philadelphia Phillies: Another prized arm to go with Price, Lee has less shine than he once had. Lee is used to be dealt at the deadline after being traded in 2009 from the Cleveland Indians to the Texas Rangers, but this year he is currently owed $25 million (unlike 2009). He has a respectable 3.67 ERA to go with a 4-5 mark but with the money owed, it’s tough to see any team taking that deal.
• Matt Kemp, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers: How the mighty have fallen. Kemp, who was once regarded as the best OF in baseball in 2011 (.324 BA, 39 HR, 126 RBI, 40 SB) has been a shell of himself this season (.268 BA, 8 HR, 38 RBI). Kemp wants to be an “everyday” OF for the Dodgers but with a loaded OF, he may be on the move to get more playing time. His contract ($21 million this season) makes him tough to move (like Lee).
  

  Kemp is not the banger he once was but still has something to offer (for the low price of $21 million).

• John Danks, SP, Chicago White Sox: This scenario keeps looking better since he is rumored to be headed to the New York Yankees. His record of 8-6 is respectable but he is posting a 4.35 ERA to go with a 1.42 WHIP. He could benefit from a change of scenery and with a better situation, could be worth an add in mixed leagues.
• Tommy Milone, SP, Oakland A’s: He, like Kemp, is looking for more playing time and in Milone’s case, you can see why. He is 6-3 with a 3.55 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP. He hasn’t been the most lethal arm in their rotation, but he can help virtually any team that’s in the playoff push. He’s cheaper than Price and could be effective; if you’re a fantasy owner, keep a sharp eye.
• Ian Kennedy, SP, San Diego Padres: Another pitcher (yes this is this week’s theme). Kennedy has been shopped around over his career (3 teams in 7 years) but he has a lot to offer for a team that needs one more piece to the puzzle. His 8-9 record on a team that ranks 30th in offense is respectable and he has a solid 3.66 ERA to compliment a 1.22 WHIP. His stock could soar if he gets dealt.

Sit back, relax, and get ready for some crazy wheeling and dealing the next couple of days!

Till next time..

Chad Bates

It’s hard to imagine that the All-Star Break is already here and gone. It just seems like yesterday I was drafting my team and trying to figure out how I was going to compete for first when I was in the hole 2 games.

Luckily some things have been moving fast and I’m tied for first in my league (for now).

One of the things I enjoy more than anything is looking at something and breaking it down. Whether it’s business statistics, art, or fantasy baseball there is something to be said about taking an item and getting to it’s root cause.

Fantasy baseball, as we have showed, can be a game of numbers AND intangibles.

This season has been one of the bigger surprises that we have seen in awhile. No one would have thought that the Oakland A’s would sport one of the best records in baseball and that the Kansas City Royals could be in position to make their first playoff appearance since 1985! Combine that with 25 “first-time” All-Stars at this year’s MLB All-Star Game and needless to say, this season has been a lot like the “Red Wedding” in Game of Thrones.

I’m talking the shock and surprise, not people getting mercilessly killed (should have clarified that one).

Redemption has been one of the major themes this season. A good example would be once fantasy-stud, turned dud, back to stud in San Francisco Giants’ SP Tim Lincecum (9-5, 3.66 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 101 SO). Lincecum, by all counts, was relegated to “done” status to begin the start of the season. The 2-time Cy Young winner had posted consecutive seasons where he lost at least 14 games and had ERA’s of 4.38 and 5.17 respectfully. His velocity was down and basically, his stock plummeted.

This season has been a somewhat different story for “The Freak”. He is currently on-pace to win 15 games and so far he has posted 5 weeks where he has scored 30 or more points (including an average of 41 points a week). He’s not a front line ace but as long as he can contribute like this the rest of the season, he is worth having on any team.

Another good case of redemption comes from Baltimore Orioles OF Nelson Cruz (.286 BA, 28 HR, 74 RBI, 332.5 fantasy points). After being suspended for the end of the season in 2013 for breaking MLB’s “Banned Substance Policy”, Cruz has resurrected himself as one of the top power-hitters in baseball. His 28 HR and his 74 RBI place him second overall behind Chicago White Sox 1B Jose Abreu (29 HR) Detroit Tigers’ 1B/3B Miguel Cabrera (75 RBI). He was not high on anyone’s radar due to the time he missed but on a team with quality bats like OF Adam Jones (.301 BA, 16 HR, 54 RBI) and 1B/OF Chris Davis (.199 BA, 15 HR, 48 RBI), Cruz has shined the brightest.

You can also make a case for Los Angeles Angels’ 1B Albert Pujols (.278 BA, 20 HR, 64 RBI) who is in the top 10 fantasy hitters for total points scored (321.5). Pujols, if you paid attention to the last 2 years, took a sharp decline when he landed in the “City of Angels” posting career lows in BA (.285 and .258) as well as in HR (30 and 17). This year, he has already eclipsed last season in terms of power and he is on-pace to hit 34 HR and 111 RBI. On this blog, we talked extensively about the decline of Pujols but this season he has taught us you can never count out a great player like him.

With that being said, here is a list of this year’s hardware.

• AL Player of the Year: Mike Trout, OF, Los Angles Angels – He is the leader amongst hitters in fantasy points (375.5) and 2nd overall in fantasy. He is the rare combination of power (22 HR) and speed (10 SB). Combine that with a .310 BA and it’s hard to imagine that he won’t bring home the hardware at the end of the season.
  

  Trout is the leader in the AL in terms of points scored and has 22 HR to go with 10 SB.

• AL Cy Young: Felix Hernandez, SP, Seattle Mariners – They call him “The King” for a reason. His 11 wins, 154 SO, 2.12 ERA, and 0.90 WHIP are several reasons why. He is tops this season in fantasy points (464) and quite honestly having one of the better runs we have seen in a long time. He, like Trout, should be bringing home hardware at the end of the season.
• AL Rookie of the Year: Mashario Tanaka, SP, New York Yankees – It would be hard not to argue Abreu and his 312 fantasy points. What sets Tanaka apart from Abreu is the fact that until his injury, he had been one of the more dominating forces in MLB (11-1 through June 22nd). Tanaka, despite the injury, ranks 4th overall in fantasy points (398) and is tied for the league-lead in W (12). He’s been a stud this season.
• AL Surprise of the Year: Scott Kazmir, SP, Oakland A’s – You could say the whole Oakland A’s team for that matter but Kazmir (11-3, 2.37 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 108 SO) has been the biggest of them all. After missing the majority of 2011 and 2012, Kazmir had a solid stint with the Cleveland Indians before coming to Oakland and becoming an All-Star. He ranks in the Top 10 fantasy pitcher wise and should turn into a Top 20 player next season.
  

  Kazmir is in the Top 10 in terms of fantasy points and he has 11 wins this season.

• AL Disappointment of the Year: Chris Davis, 1B/OF, Baltimore Orioles – We expected a decline, but no one could have envisioned this. After crushing 54 HR and a league-leading 138 RBI last season, Davis is no where near that mark (15 HR and 48 RBI). His .199 BA and 106 K are making last year look like a mirage in what could have been a promising 2014.

 

• NL Player of the Year: Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates – He leads all fantasy hitters in points (376) and has continued to put himself amongst the elite. His .323 BA, 17 HR, 61 RBI, and 15 SB are great to see in any league format and we haven’t even mentioned his OBP (.420). His SO (74) are up but he is still one of the best in the game.
• NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers – He should have been the starter for the NL because he is arguably the best in baseball. His 1.77 ERA is tops in MLB to go with a 0.83 WHIP and 11 wins. His K/BB ratio (9.69) is jaw-dropping to go with 11.8 SO per 9 innings. He’s been worth every penny of the $215 million he was signed to.
  

  Kershaw leads the league in ERA at 1.77 and has 11 wins.

• NL Rookie of the Year: Billy Hamilton, OF, Cincinnati Reds – After starting out this season on a rough patch, Hamilton has rebounded nicely. His 38 SB rank him second in the NL and he has improved significantly in BA (.285) which had been his opportunity in AA and AAA. He has already netted 40 points this scoring period and could be a must-have in Roto Leagues this season and seasons to come.
• NL Surprise of the Year: Jose Altuve, 2B, Houston Astros – If I would have told you he was in the Top 10 in fantasy points and he has done this with only 2 HR, would you believe me? No one has done more with less power than Altuve who is second in SB (41) and 3rd in BA (.335). He is proof you don’t need power to contribute in fantasy.
  

  Altuve ranks 3rd in BA at .335 and is in the Top in fantasy points.

• NL Disappointment of the Year: Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati Reds – How the mighty have fallen? Votto, riddled with injuries, is posting career lows in HR (6), BA (.254), and RBI (23) while posting a higher than normal SO total (49). The Reds should get him back in 2 weeks but if he can’t turn it around, this could be a sign of things to come.

Good luck in the second half and we will see you next time!

Chad Bates

A half a century later and I am still here.

If this was a Hollywood marriage, I would have already beat the odds. Maybe I should start insuring my blog.

To those who have been reading this the last 4 seasons, thank you for your continued support. I took on an internship nearly 4 years ago and even though I have moved on from the world of full time employment in the world of sports, I countdown the days when I can talk baseball. Between playing fantasy baseball and writing about it, it’s an addiction that’s more severe than Facebook or Twitter.

It’s been awhile since I have given my thoughts and with good reason; I have apparently discovered the world of dynasty leagues and every thing that is the World Cup. Between having my inbox fill up with 5 trade requests a day and having England and Spain ruin my bracket on ESPN, life can get pretty complicated. Like a good series drama on HBO.

This fantasy season has already shown us some interesting sights and it’s not even July yet! To think Toronto Blue Jays’ SP Mark Buehrle (10-4, 2.32 ERA, 1.23 WHIP) would be 2nd in the AL wins blows my mind. The once suspended Baltimore Orioles OF Nelson Cruz (.299 BA, 22 HR, 58 RBI) is our current leader in the majors in HR & RBI is another jaw-dropping number. Combine that with Cincinnati Reds’ SP Alfredo Simon (10-3, 3.05 ERA, 1.11 WHIP) leading the NL in wins and the Kansas City Royals in 1st place in the AL Central, and you have a cocktail of excitement stirring this Summer.

Irony of all this is that we still have over 4 months of baseball to be played.

It’s week 11 in the fantasy baseball world and whether you’re in a league or on draftkings.com, there is still excitement of things to come. We have already seen a number of top flight prospects get called up and there are several rookies who are making their case for not only an All-Star bid, but Rookie of the Year and other MLB Award Honors as well.

Since it has been 10 months prior to my last entry, I’ll keep this one more informative and less “buy or sell”. There are some names I am about to drop that are definitely recognizable but maybe one or two of these guys will open your eyes. There is always fortune to be had in a complete gamble.

1. Mashario Tanaka, SP, New York Yankees: He’s made a bigger impact than Godzilla this Summer and looks to be strong candidate for AL Cy Young. His 11 wins lead MLB and his mind-numbing 1.99 ERA is 2nd to the Reds’ Johnny Cueto (1.92). Not to mention he is 2nd in total fantasy points (349.5). I could give you a laundry list of stats that make him look larger than life, but bottom line the guy is getting it done. He’s a must start in any format, daily league or a season-long league.
   

   After signing for $155 million in the off-season, Tanaka has been carving up lineups with his 113 K in route to a 11-1 record.

2. Jose Abreu, 1B, Chicago White Sox: For 2 months he was leading MLB in HR and arguably the front runner for AL Rookie of the Year. His power stroke (20 HR) has been one of the best and he’s dominating at home with a .319 BA and 9 HR. He is prone to strikeouts (65) like most power hitters but he is worth having for his HR and RBI (53) potential.
3. Charlie Blackmon, 0F, Colorado Rockies: If I were to tell you that he is in the Top 10 for fantasy outfielders in points (240), would you believe me? One of the more surprising stories this season, Blackmon has been crushing it over his last 7 games (.400 BA) and is on pace to smash is career totals in HR (27) and RBI (99). With OF Carlos Gonzalez on the DL, he’s a must-start in all leagues.
4. Billy Hamilton, OF, Cincinnati Reds: I would have came up with a better opening-line for blog, but Hamilton stole (more than once). His 29 SB are 2nd in the MLB and he is currently on pace to reach 66 in his rookie season. He has been known for A++ speed but getting on base (.313 OBP) has been a challenge. He is having an amazing June with a .356 BA and 8 SB; he’s gold in any Roto league you can dream up.
   

   “Grand Theft Hamilton” has been at it again this season, swiping 29 bags and is on pace to hit 66 this season.

5. Gregory Polanco, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates: This team seems to breed great OF and Polanco has been no exception. He’s batting .385 in Pittsburgh after going .347 with 7 HR, 49 RBI, and 15 SB in AAA Indianapolis and what’s even more impressive is his .429 OBP. He’s a source for SB (38 in 2013) along with power (12 in 2013). He could be the next line of great OF’s in the Pirates organization.

Welcome back to another year of fantasy baseball from your’s truly. If this is already an indicator of things to come, the next couple of months should be more epic than the season finale of Game of Thrones.

Till next time..

Chad Bates

It’s hard to move on sometimes. Whether it’s a car or a job, parting ways with something that you have coveted for so long can be an emotional experience.

Keepers in fantasy baseball are no exception.

The art of keeping a player is a skill in and of itself. Choose wisely and you can reap the benefits year after year. Choose wrong and you could be the proverbial “goat” of your league.

Every year new stars rise to the top and make the choice difficult for owners who are plentiful with talent. Most leagues only allow one which on a team of 24 to 25 players can be stressful. Combine that with the age old debate of “hitter vs pitcher” and you have a recipe for a long off-season.

This season has been a tough one for those who have kept guys like Milwaukee Brewers’ OF Ryan Braun, Los Angeles Angels’ 1B Albert Pujols, and Washington Nationals’ SP Stephen Strasburg to name a few. One is suspended, one is injured, and the other one has been less than stellar (along with his team).

Going with your gut and common sense is obviously part of the game. Detroit Tigers’ 1B/3B Miguel Cabrera will pay dividends for years to come and is obviously always going to be off the board come March. Pitching wise it’s plentiful with the likes of Los Angeles Dodgers’ SP Clayton Kershaw and Texas Rangers’ SP Yu Darvish; both are in the prime of what promises to be record setting careers.

I make this sound easier than it really is.

Trickiness comes into play when you deal with guys like Detroit Tigers’ SP Max Scherzer or Baltimore Orioles’ 1B/OF Chris Davis. Scherzer, who looks like a guarantee for the AL Cy Young, is having a monumental season and Davis is on pace to hit 58 HR this season. Scherzer is 19-1 which tops MLB and he is approaching 200 K (191) with a minuscule 0.91 WHIP. The guy has been more dominant than last year’s story (now) Toronto Blue Jays’ SP R.A. Dickey.

Good ole Dickey. A stark contrast of seasons.

Dickey blew the top off last season when he was with the New York Mets, going 20-6 with a 2.73 ERA (both career bests). He had 230 K to compliment 233.3 IP and was a keeper target for owners this season. Better bats behind him in Toronto after the team went on an off-season spending spree. What’s not to love?

This season has been a different story as Dickey has gone 9-12 with a 4.49 ERA and he has already given up more ER (88) and HR (28) than he did all of last season (71 and 24 respectfully). It’s a reminder that one good season doesn’t always guarantee fruitful results going forward.

With that being said, here are a few names to consider when deciding who the franchise will be on your team next season.

• Max Scherzer, SP, Detroit Tigers: We know Scherzer is one of the best options going into the off-season but is he a guarantee? Over the last 3 seasons (minus 2013), he boasts a 3.89 ERA with opponents hitting .256 against him during that stretch. He is a K machine (averaging 196) which adds to his value along with the fact he has the most potent offense in the MLB behind him. He will get plenty of wins (43 over the last 3 seasons) and he could be worth a gamble depending on expectations. He’s good, but temper the projections if you keep him.
  

  He will get plenty of looks next season, with the 19 wins and 192 K he has already amassed.

• Albert Pujols, 1B, Los Angeles Angels: This past season has been unkind to “The King” and with that comes doubt from owners. Combine the injuries (arm and ankle) along with his career lows in production this season (.256 BA, 17 HR, 64 RBI, 55 K) and there is cause for concern. He could be someone that still goes high because of his potential (hit at least 30 HR and 99 RBI every season since rookie season) but with everything out there he is still a gamble as a keeper. But don’t be surprised if he has a bounce back in 2014.
• Chris Davis, 1B/OF, Baltimore Orioles: He is having a historic season in which like Scherzer, is bucking his trend. His HR (46) and RBI (118) are career highs and he has been benefiting from the “golden year” for players (age 27). The Orioles are young and talented which bodes well for Davis who will have guys like 3B Manny Machado (.296 BA) and OF Adam Jones (.299 BA) in front of him. His lifetime BA of .269 is something to consider but like Scherzer, he is a great option because of his team.
• Ryan Braun, OF, Milwaukee Brewers: What a year it has been for Braun. His production this season (.298 BA, 9 HR, 38 RBI) was nothing special but he is always a lock to be in the Top 10 every March. The swirling winds of bad publicity have unquestionably affected him this season but now that he has served his time, will he return to form? A .312 BA lifetime will get him plenty of attention.
  

  Making headlines for all the wrong reasons.

• Stephen Strasburg, SP, Washington Nationals: Another player who has fallen short of expectations was kept by owners in hopes of a Cy Young performance. Strasburg has a less than stellar record (6-9) but has maintained the par for him in ERA (3.00) along with K (162). His record doesn’t accurately tell the story due to a lackluster offense but when you look at his organics, he has had a pretty solid season. He may not get the nod when keepers are announced but dive in deep before shutting the door on him.
• Matt Harvey, SP, New York Mets: Like Dickey, Harvey had another solid season in the Mets’ uniform and did it in identical form. His ERA (2.27) and WHIP (0.93) have been spectacular but the wins (9) where no where near as bountiful as Dickey’s last season. Another wrinkle is that today he was announced with having a partial tear in his ulnar collateral ligament, which is a precursor for Tommy John Surgery. You have to keep an eye on it but if he can avoid surgery he would be a fine keeper. But if he goes under the knife, you have to play your cards in 2015.

Whether you end up rich or broke, just know the odds always favor the bold.

Till next time..

Chad Bates

It’s that time of the year again.

No, I’m not talking about Fall (although that is vastly approaching) or wedding season (I didn’t get invited to one this year). I’m talking about the month-long extravaganza known as Fantasy Football Pre-Season.

Mock drafts, player kits, and Buffalo Wild Wings reservations are all the rage in August as owners switch gears from the diamond to the gridiron in hopes of earning some cold hard cash. It’s the most popular fantasy sport and with good reason; everyone from a seasoned veteran to the little old lady can play. It’s the one game where you can know nothing about it and almost have a better chance of winning.

Attention is going to shift for many owners who play both sports which is a prime opportunity for the savvy baseball veterans who may be looking to cash in. Football, which is less time and focus than baseball, can still be a decent amount of prep work depending on what league you are in. I am not saying to completely abandon your football team (I even have a few teams myself) but don’t keep your eye off the baseball for a second. If you are in the thick of things and have a chance to land a playoff spot, now is the time that you can pick up some undervalued treasurers that most people would miss on because they are breaking down 4th string wide receives in their NFL Draft Kit.

For example, those who have not been paying attention the past couple of weeks may not know about Atlanta Braves’ SP Alex Wood. Wood, who is hoovering around 65% ownership, has been lights out for the Braves in his last 4 starts. He has gone 6+ in all 4 of his starts and he has only given up 5 earned in all of those combined starts. His 2.63 ERA and 1.02 WHIP are better than average and he has a red-hot, division leading offense to back him up. He has been one of the more hidden gems over the last couple of weeks.

Another guy that people will overlook (which is surprising to hear me say this) is New York Yankees’ 3B Alex Rodriguez. Everyone’s favorite “sound byte” has been red-hot over his last 7 days; he is batting .357 and has collected at least 1 hit in 6 of his last 7 games. His K are down (10 on the season) and his OBP (4.07) is close to 60 points higher than his 3 year average. I get tired of seeing his name pop up on ESPN Sports Center every minute but you can’t deny that he has been producing (surprisingly) in August.

Being able to pay attention to the signs is the key to survival in fantasy baseball. But for all of you fantasy football owners out there, I will go ahead and break tradition and leave a little something for you.

There are the dedicated few (like myself) who would trade 10 fantasy football titles for 1 fantasy baseball title. Football, in my eyes, is the “poker” of the sporting world and baseball is the “7-card stud”. Anyone can play poker but very few want to tangle with 7 card high-low.

With that being said, fantasy football and poker have a common theme. They are easy to play but take a lifetime to master.

Football is typically won in your draft; there are very few times that you can win it on the waiver wire (trust me, I know). There are the known quantities but there are a handful of guys that you can pick up later that will have substantial value if you play the cards right. Last year Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ RB Doug Martin was second amongst running backs behind Minnesota Vikings’ RB Adrian Peterson and was drafted as the 10th-15th best running back available. His 1,454 rushing yards and 11 rushing TD to go with 472 receiving yards and 1 Rec TD were amongst the best in the NFL last season and he compiled at least 10 fantasy points in 12 games last season. Needless to say, someone got great value drafting him.

This year looks to be no different as several players are being talked about for a break out campaign. One of them just happens to play with Martin in Tampa Bay. QB Josh Freeman (4,065 passing yards, 27 TD, 17 INT) is in the final year of a 5 year, $32.14 million contract and playing for a lot this season. He has shown glimpses of brilliance but has had issues in terms of turnovers (17 INT and 10 fumbles last season). With another year with standout WR Vincent Jackson (1,384 receiving yards and 8 TD) and newly acquired WR Kevin Ogletree (4 TD last season), Freeman could be a heck of steal late in drafts.

Another guy who could see tons of value is New England Patriots’ RB Stevan Ridley (1,263 rushing yards, 12 TD). Ridley had a career campaign last year in yardage and TD and established himself as the guy in the Patriots backfield. With the litany of issues in the receiving core, Ridley will shoulder more of the load this season and could see 1,500 yards in a more diverse Patriots’ offense.

It’s hard to know which way the cards will fall but one thing is for sure, playing two games at the same time can be a lot of fun or it can crushing. Hopefully you don’t get blitzkrieg on both fronts.

Till next time..

Chad Bates

 

No one stays at the top forever. Not even Charlie Sheen or Ricky Martin can be on their A-game for eternity.

Maybe I exaggerated with those examples.

Regardless if it’s television, music, or baseball, stars rise and fade with no shortage of examples. We have seen this play out in fantasy baseball time and time with reminders every season of how the baseball gods can be brutal when you make them mad.

The news about Los Angeles Angels’ 1B Albert Pujols (.258, 17 HR, 64 RBI) and his $16 million contract have been the talk this week and with good reason; he was the one guy that we thought could never “sink”. But with a foot injury and wrist injury, “King Albert” has become a boat anchor for the owners who drafted him this season. And with his average draft ranking around 8.36, owners lost out big time (along with the Angels).

To give Pujols some benfit of the doubt, he has been hobbled this season with an ailing foot/ankle injury that you can tell has affected him. Where the critics will counter point is that if you look at his impact since he was traded to the Angels in 2012, he has shown serious signs of regression. His .285 BA and 76 K last season along with just a meager 30 HR were far short of what we expect out of one of the best hitters in MLB.

Ironically enough, Pujols is not the only guy you can put on display. There are plenty of others to serve up.

We know already about the soap opera that is the New York Yankees and their highly publicized (yet ineffective) 3B Alex Rodriguez.  His ongoing negotiations with MLB around his alleged HGH use has become more annoying than the Brett Favre “dog and pony show” that takes place every season (seemingly). Rodriguez was once the darling of those who had the #1 overall pick but has now fallen faster than Paula Dean with no signs of coming close to what he once was. You factor that in with the $32 million annual salary and you have recipe for disaster.

I’m just happy I’m not on the hook for the money.

With Pujols and Rodriguez making news for all the wrong reasons (along with Riley Cooper), it got me thinking as to some of the biggest declines we have seen in the fantasy baseball world. Guys get old and the laws of averages kick in, but there have been several guys this season who have had their stars flame out.

• Ryan Howard, 1B, Philadelphia Phillies: We always knew he would strike out a lot (averaging 143 over last 3 seasons) but when the power goes away (averaging 26 HR over same span), makes it a real liability. He was the definition of “glass half empty, half full” but he has become bone dry (.265 BA, 11 HR, 43 RBI, 95 K). Shame too because the Phillies pay him roughly $20 million annually.
  

  A rise in K and a decline in power make for a long season for fantasy owners.

• Ian Kinsler, 2B, Texas Rangers: At one time, you could argue he was the best 2B in baseball. His power and speed with a respectable average made him high on draft boards. The last couple of seasons have been short by standards and this season may take the cake (.275 BA, 9 HR, 32 RBI, 7 SB). Kinsler has had injury problems but the decline in production (BA dropped 30 points since 2010; SB dropped 8, CS up each season) has made him a mid-tier 2B at best.
• Jimmy Rollins, SS, Philadelphia Phillies: It’s no surprise that he made it on the list after having one of the better seasons in 2007 (30 HR and 41 SB). Rollins has never been one to help your average (.263 career BA) but the regression in power (averaging 16 HR last 3 seasons) and speed (averaging 26 SB over the last 3 seasons) make him as big of a liability as Howard.
• Evan Longoria, 3B, Tampa Bay Rays: Before the sudden surge of great 3B, you could live with the K’s (averaging 93 last 3 years) and potential for production. But Longoria (after having last year cut short by injury) has been on the down slide. He has 21 HR but is well short of his 3 year average in RBI (86 over 3 years, 58 now) and is on pace for 168 K. He has value, but not nearly what he once had.
• Josh Hamilton, OF, Los Angeles Angels: He is the other half of the Angels’ nightmare this season. After signing him to a 5 year, $125 million contract Hamilton has been a bust with career lows in BA (.226) and OBP (.283). His power usually can offset his K (averaging 117 over the last 3 years) but he has had an outage of sorts this season (16 HR, on pace for 24). Hamilton has hurt those who drafted him and has an unknown future ahead.
• Roy Halladay, SP, Philadelphia Phillies: The 3rd Phillies player to make the list but his decline is a shock to many. At one point, he was a guaranteed ace (averaging 17 wins over last 3 years) but the last 2 seasons have been unkind to his ERA (4.49 and 8.65) and he has been hurt for over a collective season of baseball. We knew their were signs coming into this season, but no one could have predicted a decline like this.
  

  At one point, they were the best. Now, both guys are in scramble mode to revive their careers.

• Tim Lincecum, SP, San Francisco Giants: He is another former ace who has seen better days (and not due to injury). He did pitch a no-hitter which was a nice thing to see, but you can’t deny his problems over the last 3 seasons. His ERA last year (5.17) and WHIP (1.46) were career highs and clearly not a myth this season (4.60 ERA and 1.34 WHIP). He still has signs of brilliance but no where near the Cy Young caliber.
• Heath Bell, RP, Arizona Diamondbacks: It’s bad enough being replaced but twice in one season? Bell is far removed from being one of the best closers in MLB (43 saves in 2011) but when he went to Miami last season, a big part of his game stayed there. His 19 saves last year and 15 this year are well short of his potential and you combine that with a 5.12 and 3.82 ERA, and you have a problem.

Doors never 100 percent close but sometimes there is enough writing on the wall to make you think twice before opening. Hopefully this group can get it together before they have things shut on them permanently.

Till next time..

Chad Bates